Macron in India: A ‘Contract of the Century’ and Deeper Ties on the Horizon

French President Emmanuel Macron has landed in India for a pivotal three-day visit, sparking excitement around a potential multibillion-dollar Dassault Rafale fighter jet deal and enhanced cooperation in artificial intelligence. This marks Macron’s fourth visit since 2017, underscoring the growing strategic importance of the Indo-French partnership.

The Rafale Deal: A Game-Changer for India-France Defence Ties

At the heart of Macron’s visit is France’s ambition to significantly expand its military collaboration with New Delhi. Discussions are expected to solidify a monumental contract for 114 additional French Rafale fighter jets. This follows New Delhi’s recent confirmation of its intent to place a major order, a move strategically aimed at diversifying its defence sourcing away from traditional supplier Russia.

While the exact number is still subject to final negotiations with manufacturer Dassault Aviation, a defence ministry source suggests 114 is highly probable. Christophe Jaffrelot, an India specialist, has even dubbed the potential $35 billion deal as the “contract of the century,” positioning it as a crowning achievement for bilateral relations. If finalized, these jets would complement the 36 Rafales India acquired for its air force in 2016 and the 26 ordered for its navy.

Crucially, ‘the majority’ of these new Rafale jets are intended to be manufactured in India, aligning with New Delhi’s push for greater domestic production and reduced reliance on foreign imports.

Beyond Jets: A Broadening Strategic Partnership

Macron, accompanied by his wife Brigitte, kicked off his visit in Mumbai, India’s financial hub. He is scheduled for crucial meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, followed by an artificial intelligence summit in New Delhi.

The visit isn’t just about defence; it’s a testament to the deepening economic and technological bonds:

• AI Cooperation: The AI summit highlights a shared vision for future-forward collaboration in cutting-edge technologies.
• Helicopter Assembly Line: Modi and Macron will virtually inaugurate India’s first helicopter final assembly line in Vemagal, a joint venture between India’s Tata Group and Airbus. This facility will produce the Airbus H125, the company’s best-selling single-engine helicopter.
• Economic Ties: France has emerged as a key defence and economic partner for India. Bilateral trade, heavily driven by defence and aerospace (India’s commercial fleet includes numerous Airbus aircraft), stands at around $18 billion annually, with French foreign direct investment in India nearing $15 billion.

Global Context and Personal Rapport

This week’s discussions will also delve into pressing global issues, including economic uncertainties stemming from US tariff policies and China’s growing influence in the region. Modi’s office emphasizes that talks will focus on “cementing the strategic partnership and further diversifying it into new and emerging areas.”

The close personal ties between Modi and Macron, often described as having “good chemistry,” are expected to further facilitate these high-level discussions.

The Ukraine Question: A Lingering Delicate Issue

One sensitive point remains India’s stance on the Ukraine conflict. New Delhi has not condemned Russia’s 2022 invasion and continues to purchase oil from Moscow. While US President Donald Trump has previously suggested India committed to halting these purchases, formal confirmation from New Delhi is still pending. As Jaffrelot notes, a shift in India’s oil purchasing policy could potentially alter its standing on global diplomatic stages.

As India, the world’s most populous nation, rapidly approaches becoming the fourth-largest global economy, visits like Macron’s are instrumental in shaping its strategic alliances and securing its future defence and technological prowess.

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