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Pakistan is quietly undergoing a profound transformation, one that’s reshaping its rural heartland and posing an urgent question for its burgeoning youth. With a population growing at over 2.5% annually, the very structure of our farms is changing, leading to a silent crisis that demands immediate attention.
The Shrinking Fields: A Crisis of Inheritance
Generations of land inheritance, without laws to curb excessive subdivision, have led to an alarming trend: farms are multiplying while their average size shrinks drastically. The 7th Agricultural Census of Pakistan 2024 clearly illustrates this shift. What were once sprawling family estates, measured in ‘squares’ (25 acres), are now fragmented into mere acres, or even fractions of an acre. The economic viability of millions of these micro-farms is increasingly becoming a major concern.
Pathways Blocked: Horticulture, Processing, and Mechanization
For many, high-value horticulture (fruits, vegetables, flowers, medicinal plants) offered a glimmer of hope for generating income from small plots. However, this labour-intensive avenue faces significant constraints. A limited domestic market and poor compliance with international sanitary standards severely restrict its export potential. As we’ve seen in the past two years, even a modest 10-15% expansion in cultivated areas can trigger a market crash, leaving farmers in heavy losses – a situation exacerbated by border closures and supply-demand imbalances.
Adding to this challenge is Pakistan’s nearly non-existent agro-processing industry. This vital sector could otherwise absorb surplus produce, add value, and, crucially, create much-needed rural employment. Instead, our valuable harvests often go to waste.
Meanwhile, the very jobs rural youth once relied on are disappearing. The rapid spread of farm mechanization – from combine harvesters to drones for pesticide application – while boosting productivity for farmers, has drastically cut down opportunities for seasonal workers and daily wagers. The casual and seasonal work that sustained countless rural households is steadily diminishing.
No Easy Escape: Urban Dreams and Global Hurdles
Traditionally, rural-to-urban migration offered an escape, with youth finding unskilled work in construction and industrial sectors. However, flawed and inconsistent government policies have stifled these sectors, leading to job stagnation and even layoffs for the existing workforce. With nearly 2 million young people entering the labour market each year, the economy simply isn’t creating enough productive roles.
Overseas employment, while attractive, remains largely out of reach for poorly educated rural youth with little to no vocational skills. Consequently, a growing segment of our rural population finds itself trapped: shrinking farm sizes, declining local job opportunities, and limited prospects beyond agriculture. It’s no surprise that Pakistan is grappling with its highest unemployment rates since FY04.
The Livestock Leap: A Path Forward?
In this challenging landscape, rural families are increasingly turning to a vital, yet often overlooked, sector: livestock. Milk and meat production is becoming a crucial avenue to supplement household incomes and provide meaningful work for youth. This growing focus is clearly reflected in the sector’s impressive 4.72% growth in FY25, and its expanding share in agricultural GDP, now accounting for a dominant 63.6% – significantly outstripping the crop sector.
Unleashing Livestock’s Potential: The Policy Imperative
Despite its rising importance, the livestock sector receives far less media and policy attention than its crop-centric counterpart. Yet, it faces its own complex set of challenges: decades-long government price caps on milk and meat distort the market, as input costs rise unchecked while output prices remain suppressed. Low milk yields, suboptimal feed conversion, the influx of cheap imported whey and skimmed milk powder, and restricted export access due to transboundary diseases like foot-and-mouth disease further undermine its growth potential.
To truly leverage this sector, government policy must anticipate the continued fragmentation of agricultural land and the rapid growth of smallholder livestock farmers. Only with a supportive policy framework and an enabling business environment can livestock become a key engine of economic growth, generating large-scale employment for our illiterate and unskilled rural youth. This isn’t just about jobs; it’s about mitigating the risk of rising social instability in Pakistan.
By Khalid Wattoo (Development Professional & Farmer) and Dr. Waqar Ahmad (Former Associate Professor, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad). Originally published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly.
Source: Original Article
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