On Venezuela, Trump Needs To Ask the Big Question

The international community, led by the United States, has focused considerable energy and resources on pressuring Nicolás Maduro to depart from power in Venezuela. Sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and unwavering support for Juan Guaidó have been the cornerstones of this strategy. Yet, amidst the fervent calls for regime change, one critical question often remains understated, or perhaps, entirely unanswered: If Nicolás Maduro departs, what’s next?

This isn’t just a rhetorical query; it’s the fundamental strategic challenge that must be addressed with the same intensity as the efforts to dislodge the current regime. Removing a dictator is often the easier part; building a stable, prosperous, and democratic nation in its wake is the true test of statesmanship.

The Peril of the Unplanned Transition

Venezuela stands on the precipice of a humanitarian catastrophe, political chaos, and economic ruin. Should Maduro leave office without a meticulously planned transition, the country risks plunging into an even deeper abyss. A power vacuum, infighting among opposition factions, a fragmented military, and the lingering influence of armed collectivos could easily lead to prolonged instability, potential civil strife, and further suffering for the Venezuelan people.

What a Comprehensive Plan Must Address:

• Economic Reconstruction: Venezuela’s oil-rich economy has been decimated. Any post-Maduro government will face the monumental task of rebuilding infrastructure, attracting investment, stabilizing currency, and addressing hyperinflation. This requires substantial international aid and expertise.
• Political Reconciliation: Years of deep political polarization have fractured Venezuelan society. A transition plan must include mechanisms for national dialogue, justice, and truth-telling, while carefully navigating the role of the military and various political actors.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Millions have fled Venezuela, and those remaining face severe shortages of food, medicine, and basic services. Immediate, large-scale humanitarian assistance will be critical, requiring secure corridors and efficient distribution networks.
• Security and Rule of Law: Re-establishing the rule of law, disarming irregular groups, and reforming security forces will be paramount to ensure stability and public safety.
• Democratic Institution Building: Free and fair elections are a cornerstone, but rebuilding democratic institutions, ensuring judicial independence, and fostering a vibrant civil society will be a long-term endeavor.

Trump’s Role Beyond Regime Change

For President Trump and his administration, the question “what’s next?” isn’t just for Venezuelans to answer. As the primary international actor pushing for Maduro’s removal, the U.S. has a profound responsibility to articulate a clear vision for the day after. This means moving beyond rhetoric and sanctions to outline a robust, multilateral framework for supporting a democratic transition.

It requires engaging with a broader spectrum of Venezuelan civil society, opposition figures, and even elements within the military who might be open to a democratic future. It means coordinating with regional allies and international bodies to assemble a comprehensive package of economic aid, technical assistance, and security guarantees.

The Path to True Success

True success in Venezuela will not be solely measured by the day Nicolás Maduro departs. It will be measured by the stability, peace, and prosperity that follow. To achieve this, the international focus must shift from merely pushing for an exit to meticulously planning for the entry – the entry of a new, democratic era for Venezuela. It’s time for President Trump to ask, and answer, the big question.

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